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Thursday, October 28, 2021

The Fed’s Dot Game: “Something Missing”

Submitted by Joseph Carson, former chief economist at Alliance BernsteinThe Federal Reserve members' updated projections at the March 16-17 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) paint an optimistic economic view and an unrealistic monetary policy picture. Policymakers now agree with private forecasters that the US economy will experience in 2021 its faster growth rate (+6.5%) since…

The Fed’s “Catch 21”: BofA Explains Why Bitcoin Is 2021’s Safe Haven

In his latest Flow Show, BofA's Michael Hartnett has admirably - in one short paragraph - captured the Catch 22 dilemma, or rather Catch 21 as Hartnett puts it, that the Fed is facing:On one hand, vaccine + fiscal excess + bond issuance + inflationary boom = higher yields, which via tighter financial conditions can…

How The Fed’s Inflation Is Driving Stock Buybacks

Authored by Brian Carus via The Mises Institute,Senator Elizabeth Warren appeared on CNBC last week, sparring with hosts Becky Quick and Joe Kernan over stock buybacks.Both sides here either forget about, miss, or fail to prioritize the key behavioral incentives that drive this activity.It is true that company managers are shareholder agents—and are obligated to pursue…

“The Fed’s Monetary Punchbowl Is Fueling Rampant Home Price Appreciation”: AEI

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,During the press conference following the FOMC meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked by different reporters about the craziness going on in the stock market, the chaotic thingy with GameStop, corporate debt, and the housing market.The fact that he was asked several times about the exuberant nuttiness…

Why doesn’t President Trump just send in the troops? A soldier explains

Kurt Schlichter penned an excellent piece for Townhall.com that gives very clear explanation for a question that has no doubt been on many conservatives’ minds: Why doesn’t the President just do what he threatens, send in the Guard and shut these riots down for good? We know those cowards will not challenge the military! As we…

If The US Was Japan, The Fed’s Balance Sheet Would Be $25 Trillion

If anyone still needs a simple yet infallible thesis to buy gold, here it is from Deutsche Bank's chief credit strategist Jim Reid. Fed Balance Sheet – One-way traffic again Last week the Fed balance sheet dipped below $7tn and is now -3.5% below its peak a month ago. However, this reflects emergency pandemic liquidity…

Fed’s Balance Sheet Shrinks For Second Consecutive Week

After three months of record gains, which saw an increase of $3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed's balance sheet has posted its second consecutive weekly decline since the start of the corona crisis according to the latest H.4.1 statement. While not nearly as large as last week's decline which was the largest since May…

Fed’s Balance Sheet Posts Biggest Weekly Drop In 11 Years

After three months of record gains, which saw an increase of $3 trillion to $7.2 trillion, the Fed's balance sheet has finally posted its first weekly decline since the start of the corona crisis according to the latest H.4.1 statement. This was not only the first shrinkage in the Fed's balance sheet since the week…

The Fed’s Balance Sheet Will Expand By 38% Of GDP, More Than Double QE1,...

Authored by Chetan Ahya, chief Morgan Stanley economist and global head of economics The 1Q GDP data releases for the US and euro area this week provide official confirmation of what we have known for some time – the recession has started. However, we remain of the view that this downturn will be sharper but…

The Fed’s Balance Sheet: The Other Exponential Curve

As the threat of COVID-19 keeps millions of Americans locked down at home, businesses and financial markets are suffering. For example, a survey of small-business owners found that 51% did not believe they could survive the pandemic for longer than three months. At the same time, the S&P 500 posted its worst first-quarter on record. In response…

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