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Saturday, June 25, 2022

Goldman Now Expects Yield Curve To Invert Next Quarter, Sees Inversion Lasting Three Years

Yesterday, in our discussion of the "battle of the yield curves", where we made it clear only the 2s10s matters due to its infallible recessionary signaling, we pointed out that while on average it takes 12-18 months from inversion to recession during a Fed hiking cycle...... not only has the Fed never before started a…

Goldman Sachs Carries Out Wall Street’s First Over-The-Counter Crypto Trade

First Goldman starts making markets in nickel with the metal still frozen on the LME, and now this: in what will likely be construed as a milestone for Wall Street, Goldman Sachs has conducted its first over-the-counter crypto transaction, according to CNBC making it the first major US bank to do so. Specifically, the bank traded…

Goldman Trader: “The Past Few Weeks Have Poured Kerosene On A Tectonic Shift That’s...

On the same day that Goldman's chief of US equity research David Kostin capitulated for the second time in the past month, and one month after cutting his year-end S&P price target from 5,100 to 4,900, the Goldman strategist followed up with another 200-point cut to his S&P price target after the close on Friday…

Goldman Calculates How Much Various Markets Will Move Under A Russia-Ukraine War

Yesterday we published an extensive analysis courtesy of Rabobank, looking at all the ways a war between Russia and Ukraine would impact the regional and global economy, how it would affect risk premia and risk assets, what it would do to oil and gas prices (spoiler alert: higher), and much more. Readers can read the…

Goldman Capitulates, Cuts S&P Price Target To 4,900, Warns Of “Recession Downside” To 3,600

It was less than three months ago that a gaping divergence emerged on Wall Street between the two most prominent investment banks: in mid-November, Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson published its 2022 equity market outlook, in which it predicted that the S&P would close the coming year at 4,400, some 6% lower from what was then…

Goldman President Complains Overly “Political” Fed “Does Not Have The Will” To Stop Inflation

Shortly before the start of yesterday's Fed announcement, Goldman Sachs No. 2 John Waldron, the investment bank's president and a Wall Street insider if there ever was one, apparently decided to vent his frustrations with the Powell Fed in front of a live (if virtual) audience at a meeting of the New Jersey State Investment…

Goldman Sees “Risk” Of Fed Rate Hike At Every Meeting, Predicts $2.5 Trillion In...

An interesting dynamic has emerged on Wall Street: on one hand, amid rising speculation that the Fed may hike as much as 50bps and/or announce an early end to the taper in this week's FOMC meeting, some banks like JPMorgan are starting to see a "pivot" emerge and in the bank's latest Fed outlook, it…

Goldman Cuts GDP Forecast Due To Omicron, Setting The Stage For More Central Banks...

It was less than a month ago when bank after bank triumphantly revealed their extremely optimistic year-ahead growth forecasts, in which chief economists trumpeted 2022 GDP expectations in the mid- to high-single digits despite knowing well that these numbers are completely unattainable (as a reminder, the reason the forward swap yield curve just inverted is…

Goldman Stunned By The Record $2.6 Trillion In Option Notional Traded Last Friday

Last weekend we discussed the staggering sizes hit in the options markets in recent days, which culminated with an absolutely blockbuster $904 billion in total option notional volumes on Friday, Nov 5 when countless momentum stocks went haywire trading purely on gamma flows and technicals, and prices terminally disconnected from fundamentals. But it was Goldman…

Goldman Laughs At Today’s Oil Selloff: “Our Bullish View Remains Unchanged”, Sees Deficits Requiring...

It has been a rollercoaster session for oil which initially tumbled into today's OPEC+ session on the naive belief that Saudi Arabia and Russia would actually comply with Biden's demands to pump more (they did not), and then after reversing losses, it was hammered again only not due to supply fears but over positioning ahead…
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