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Tuesday, August 16, 2022

Morgan Stanley: We Are About To Find Out The Cost Of Remodeling A Global...

By Michael Zezas, Head of Public Policy Research at Morgan StanleyWhat’s the cost of remodeling a global economy? What’s the benefit? Ready or not, we’re about to find out. Why? Because geopolitical events are accelerating important secular trends:The “slowbalization” of economic and national interests eating away at globalization; andThe shift from a single economic power base…

Morgan Stanley Sees S&P Tumbling As Low As 3,400: “That’s Where Valuation And Technical...

In the latest Morgan Stanley Sunday Start note published over the weekend, which this time featured the bank's chief US equity strategist, Michael Wilson (who after BofA's Michael Hartnett, is easily the street's second most bearish strategist), the bank's strategist elevated his bearish view up another notch, writing that this bear market will not be…

Morgan Stanley: Embrace The Late-Cycle Playbook

By Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Most of my meetings this week focused on yield curve inversion, a sign that the topic is either top-of-mind or is so widely discussed that everyone is tired of talking about it. Or maybe both. (As one investor put it this week, "We’re very focused on curve inversion and…

Morgan Stanley: We Could Be In A Downturn 5-10 Months From Now

by Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan StanleyA year ago, we published a joint note with our economics and cross-asset strategy teams arguing that this cycle would run hotter but shorter than the prior three. Our view was based on the speed and strength of the economic and earnings rebound following the 2020 recession, the…

JP Morgan, Goldman Scoop Up Distressed Russian Assets As Analysts Fret About Economic Collapse

A couple of days ago, as Russia-linked ETFs plunged following a battery of US and European sanctions against Russia designed to isolate its economy and cut its people off from the global financial system, we asked ourselves: who is buying all these Russian assets? The notion that American distressed investors would pass up the opportunity…

Morgan Stanley: “Winter Is Here, And Slowing Growth Will Overtake The Fed As The...

By Michael Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan StanleyGrowing up in the Midwest in the 1970s, I remember much colder and snowier winters that started earlier and lasted seemingly forever. With global warming, the winters are milder, start later and end earlier. However, one thing has not changed – winter always comes. This year…

Morgan Stanley: Here’s Why We See No Rate Hikes In 2022 And What That...

By Vishwanath Tirupattur, global head of Quantitative Research at Morgan StanleyThis has been our outlook week. We published our year-ahead global economics and strategy outlooks last Sunday, and more detailed asset class and country-specific outlooks have been streaming out during the week. At Morgan Stanley Research, our outlooks are the culmination of weeks of deliberation…

“The Fire Is Hot”: Why Morgan Stanley Is Bracing For A Collapse In The...

By Michael Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan StanleyTrick or Treat, or Both?Over the past few weeks, I have been highlighting the increasing probability of a colder winter but a later start than previously expected. In other words, our 'fire and ice' narrative remains intact, but timing of ice has been pushed out (see "http://feedproxy.google.com/"Our…

Morgan Stanley Asks “What Exactly Do You Mean By Stagflation”

By Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley, the first in three posts for today by Wall Street banks scrambling to address the elephant in the room. Near where I live in London, service stations are out of petrol. In Europe, natural gas prices have tripled in the last three months. Year over year,…

Morgan Stanley: Countries Will Transition Toward Acceptance Of COVID As An Endemic Problem They...

By Chetan Ahya, Chief Economist and Global Head of Economics at Morgan StanleyGetting Back to Growth OutperformanceThe tone in my recent meetings with investors in Asia has been all too familiar. Our constructive views – both cyclically and structurally – are greeted with cautiousness. Earlier in the summer, investors were sceptical about the region’s vaccination…
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