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Wednesday, November 25, 2020
payrolls-preview:-on-the-edge-of-a-slowdown

Payrolls Preview: On The Edge Of A Slowdown

The Street expects 1.4 million nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in August, which would be the weakest pace of payroll additions since the -20.8 million reading in April; according to NewsSquawk, that might signal that labor market progress is stalling. The government payrolls metric will also matter because as noted previously…
payrolls-preview:-just-how-“big”-will-friday’s-“big-number”-be

Payrolls Preview: Just How “Big” Will Friday’s “Big Number” Be

Going into tomorrow's July nonfarms payroll, the picture is mixed: The rate of jobless claims rose in the survey week, against expectations it would fall; continuing claims also rose in the reference period, even after stripping out the effect of bi-weekly reporting in some states (subsequent claims data however showed a notable decline in new…
june-payrolls-preview:-it-could-go-either-way

June Payrolls Preview: It Could Go Either Way

Ahead of tomorrow's June non-farm payrolls, consensus expects an increase of 3.1 million jobs, however with great uncertainty across estimates. Here is the rest of consensus expectations from tomorrow's report: Nonfarm Payrolls exp. 3mln (range 405k to +9mln, prev. +2.51mln); Unemployment rate exp. 12.3% (range: 10.1- 15.5%%), prev. 13.3%; U6 unemployment prev. 21.2%; Participation prev.…
july-payrolls-preview:-beware-the-census-hiring-surge

July Payrolls Preview: Beware The Census Hiring Surge

Now that the Fed is once again extremely sensitive to incoming data - or at least that's what the market thinks - and especially bad incoming data as today's disappointing ISM demonstrated, which sent stocks surging on hopes of more rate cuts (at least until Trump's subsequent tariff shocker), today's payrolls report is suddenly extremely…
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