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Tuesday, August 16, 2022

June Payrolls Preview: It Could Go Either Way

Ahead of tomorrow's June non-farm payrolls, consensus expects an increase of 3.1 million jobs, however with great uncertainty across estimates. Here is the rest of consensus expectations from tomorrow's report: Nonfarm Payrolls exp. 3mln (range 405k to +9mln, prev. +2.51mln); Unemployment rate exp. 12.3% (range: 10.1- 15.5%%), prev. 13.3%; U6 unemployment prev. 21.2%; Participation prev.…

FOMC Minutes Preview: Don’t Expect The Fed To Reveal Much

Submitted by RanSquawk The FOMC meeting minutes are unlikely to reveal much by way of new information, and will likely reiterate the points made within the post-meeting statement, post-meeting press conference with Chair Powell, as well as Powell’s views expressed in his recent dual-testimonies to lawmakers. The Fed is monitoring the impact of the coronavirus,…

FOMC Preview: Here’s What The Fed Will Say Today

With a global viral pandemic raging, and even the WHO admitting to "human error" in "accidentally" mitigating the severity of the disease to avoid a panic, it is easy to forget that at 2pm the Fed will announce its first policy decision for 2020, this time with uber-dove Neil Kashkari voting. What to expect? Here…

FOMC Minutes Preview: Just What Is A “Material Reassessment” In The Outlook

At 2pm today the Fed will release the FOMC minutes from the October meeting, which will signal that policy is on hold for now, barring a material reassessment in the outlook, per Chair Powell’s recent rhetoric. As DB's Jim Reid notes, it’ll be interesting to see if the minutes shed any light on what exactly…

Your Last Minute FOMC Preview: Here Is What The Fed Will Say Today

As we said in our FOMC preview last night, the simplest summary of what to expect from the Fed in just one hour's time is "If The Fed Doesn't Cut, Brace For Impact; If The Fed Cuts... Then What?" A slightly more expanded take on today's main event came from Curvature's Scott Skyrm who cut…

FOMC Minutes Preview: When Will The Fed Cut Rates Again

The September FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released in just under half an hour, at 2pm ET: focus will be on clues into conditions for further rate cuts as well as any talk around a permanent standing repo facility, although it now appears that the Fed has picked the option to do POMO starting some…

July Payrolls Preview: Beware The Census Hiring Surge

Now that the Fed is once again extremely sensitive to incoming data - or at least that's what the market thinks - and especially bad incoming data as today's disappointing ISM demonstrated, which sent stocks surging on hopes of more rate cuts (at least until Trump's subsequent tariff shocker), today's payrolls report is suddenly extremely…

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