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Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Japan’s Sharp Contraction Sends Global Warning About Tax Hikes

The Japanese economy shrank at an annual pace of 6.3 percent last quarter after a consumption tax hike crushed consumer spending. Domestic demand fell in the quarter at an annual pace of 8.0 percent, seasonally adjusted economic data released Monday by Japan’s Cabinet Office showed Monday. The government hiked a consumption tax from 8 percent to…

All Aboard The “No Recession” Train

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk, Hiring bounced back in November. More are hopping on the "No Recession" Train. I'm not one of them. No Recession in Sight Here's a Tweet that caught my eye today. — ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) December 7, 2019 This post on Change in Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Payrolls Change in U.S. Economic…

The Next US Recession Will Start In One Of These Four States

Submitted by Nick Colas of DataTrek Over the course of 2019 we have been tracking three states – Michigan, Ohio and Indiana – because we believe the next US recession will start in the American upper-Midwest. Our thesis in a nutshell: Every slowdown has its own particular “Patient Zero”, the economic equivalent of epidemiology’s first…

Recession? The Risk Isn’t Gone

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Over the last few weeks, we have been discussing the “QE, Not QE” rally. Regardless of what the Fed wishes to call their bond purchases, the market has interpreted the expansion of their balance sheet as a “QE” program. Given that investors have been “trained” by the Fed’s “ringing of the bell,” the subsequent 6-week advance was…

Can A Policy Recession Occur When The Fed Is Easing?

Submitted by Joseph Crason, Former Director of Global Economic Research, Alliance Bernstein Is it possible for a policy recession to occur when successive rounds of policy-stimulus have worked to extend the economic cycle and the policy-fuel runs out or cannot be provided in the same scale? We may soon find out. The current stance of…

This Is What A Recession Looks Like

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog, Do you remember what it was like in 2008 when it literally felt like no job was truly safe?  It was a terrible time, and many fear that we could soon be facing a similar scenario.  In recent days, big companies all across America have been…

GOP Sen. Toomey: ‘I Don’t Think That We Are Heading to a Recession Any...

Senator Pat Toomey (R-PA) said Thursday he does not think the United States is “heading to a recession any time soon.” In his interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Toomey voiced his concern with beginning a new trade war, saying the country “ought to be working hard” to end existing trade wars. “The combination of adverse…

Michigan Could Be In A Recession In Next Couple Months

Hawaii and Montana have the next highest probabilities of recession risk for 4Q19 According to a new LendingTree study, Michigan has the highest probability of entering an economic downturn later this year. The study warned that Michigan, Hawaii, and Montana have the highest risks of a recession. The highest, however, is Michigan, with a 58.86%…

Gundlach: 75% Odds Of US Recession Before 2020 Election

DoubleLine CEO Jeff Gundlach sees a 75% chance of a US recession before the 2020 election.  Speaking at a London event this week, the billionaire money manager reiterated his August outlook, telling the audience "We should be on recession watch before the 2020 election," adding "We’re getting closer but we’re not there yet."  According to Gundlach,…

Next US Crash between 2022 & 2023

Authored by Serban V.C. Enache via Hereticus Economicus: Despite the desire of some to plunge the US economy into a recession under Trump’s term – probably the ultimate humiliation for the businessman President – the bust isn’t anywhere near the horizon. To argue this point, I will use the 18 Year Real Estate Cycle approach…

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