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Friday, September 17, 2021

Stocks Roaring Higher As Dozens Of Systemic Risk Indicators Flash Red

Submitted By Larry McDonald, as excerpted from his latest must-read Bear Traps reportNo one knows where the market is going week to week, all we know is elephants leave footprints. Across asset classes, when large risk hedges are being put forth, there are often clues. These triggers change the probability outlook looking at the near…
stocks-dump,-dollar-jumps-as-self-sustaining-recovery-narrative-collapses

Stocks Dump, Dollar Jumps As Self-Sustaining Recovery Narrative Collapses

Ugly retail sales, industrial production strong, homebuilder sentiment slammed, and the Kiwis locking down over one (yes one) COVID case... All added up to 'growth scare' time as US macro data is declining/disappointing at the fastest rate since March 2020...Source: BloombergIt seems that without the government constantly puking cash into Americans' pockets (for doing nothing)…
stocks-slump,-bonds-pump’n’dump,-crypto-jumps-on-jobs-&-jawboning

Stocks Slump, Bonds Pump’n’Dump, Crypto Jumps On Jobs & Jawboning

The bond market should take the headlines today after a wild ride driven by weak jobs data, very mixed Services survey data (ISM record high, PMI 6mo low), and hawkish chatter from Fed Vice-Chair Clarida, which sounded a lot like this...For all the chaos, the long-bond ended unchanged and the belly only around 1-2bps higher…
stocks-blast-off-once-powell-defines-“substantial-further-progress”-as-just-jobs,-not-inflation

Stocks Blast Off Once Powell Defines “Substantial Further Progress” As Just Jobs, Not Inflation

For the past year, a strawman phrase used repeatedly by the Fed to grant itself a green light to do whatever it wants, is that it needs to see "substantial further progress" before it tapers, hikes, tightens, etc., i.e. changes the current regime of $120BN in liquidity injections every month (which judging by today's near…
stocks-surge-after-monday-mayhem;-bonds,-bullion,-bitcoin,-&-black-gold-flat

Stocks Surge After Monday Mayhem; Bonds, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Black Gold Flat

After an ugly Delta-driven growth scare plunge at the open on Monday, "Get Out & Party" stocks soared this week. The Nasdaq outperformed and Dow lagged on the week as Small Caps gave back their mid-week panic-buying (swinging from down over 2.5% to up over 3.5% to end the week up 2%)...And the S&P is…
as-stocks-soar,-demand-for-downside-risk-hedges-reaches-highest-since-2018

As Stocks Soar, Demand For Downside Risk Hedges Reaches Highest Since 2018

While Small Caps have taken a kickin' recently, the broad stock market continues to ascend Icarus-like to ever higher highs on a bed of global liquidity and hope-filled dreams of a return to an even more utopian (and profitable) normal.There's just one thing (well two actually, but more on that later)...As stocks have hit record-er…
stocks-soar-to-all-time-high-as-bonds,-bullion-and-bitcoin-bounce

Stocks Soar To All Time High As Bonds, Bullion And Bitcoin Bounce

Thursday's mini rout, which started with one of the ugliest market opens in history in the form of the 4th lowest NYSE TICK print in history...... as traders freaked out over fresh covid pandemic fears due to the soaring number of delta cases around the globe...... was completely forgotten come Friday, when spoos rose to…
stocks-storm-to-7th-straight-record-high,-longest-stretch-since-august,-after-goldilocks-jobs-report

Stocks Storm To 7th Straight Record High, Longest Stretch Since August, After Goldilocks Jobs...

In our preview of today's jobs report we said it would be hot but not too hot, and that's precisely what happened when the BLS reported that June's payrolls data was strong (850K) but not too strong (wages eased, unemployment rose).And as Bloomberg recaps in its intraday wrap, namely that "stocks climbed on speculation the economy…
stocks-&-bonds-soar-in-‘stagflationary’-q2,-june-gloom-crushes-crypto

Stocks & Bonds Soar In ‘Stagflationary’ Q2, June Gloom Crushes Crypto

An ugly year for "hard data", especially relative to expectations, but that didn't stop oil prices, big-tech stocks from soaring (as the yield curve flattened dramatically with the long-end well bid)Source: BloombergAnd Q2 saw ominous stagflationary signals...Source: BloombergAs Bubble Markets followed The Fed's balance sheet flow...Source: BloombergThis seemed to sum things up...In Q2, the long-bond…
stocks-&-bonds-jump-as-powell-pontificates,-cryptos-dump’n’pump

Stocks & Bonds Jump As Powell Pontificates, Cryptos Dump’n’Pump

US equity markets extended yesterday's rational exuberance, accelerating higher as Powell faced Congressional hearings and promised 'to the moon' for everything (actually he pretty much said nothing...which is exactly what the market was hoping for). Interestingly, the moment Powell's hearing ended, some selling arrived. Nasdaq outperformed on the day and the Dow lagged...For context, here…
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