World Events

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Just recently, I was reading an article from Larry Swedroe which “discussed” the “Surprising Results From S&P’s Latest SPIVA Analysis.” To wit: “Over the 15-year period, on an equal-weighted (asset-weighted) basis, the average actively managed U.S. equity fund underperformed by 1.4% (0.74%)per annum. The worst performances were small caps, with active small-cap growth managers underperforming…

Every now and again, former pro athletes get caught up in some relatively minor and often ham-fisted financial crime, like getting caught participating in an insider-trading ring run by a former Goldman analyst. Having focused on sports their whole careers, many athletes leave the league with a lot of money, and not a ton of…

Authored by Martin Fraenkel via S&P Global Platts, What will be the biggest drivers and concerns for global commodity and energy markets in 2020? S&P Global Platts president Martin Fraenkel shares his outlook. This year has been marked by a tug of war between geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic concerns, rangebound commodity prices and – perhaps…

Between Trump appearing to walk back his more aggressive earlier tweet, telling reporters that “we're working a deal with China, but I wouldn’t say up until now they’ve loved me," and comments from CNBC China's Eunice Yoon, stocks have given back a large chunk of earlier gains... Reports of US offer on #trade deal causing…

And just like that, confirming weeks of media speculation, Trump has folded with the Dow Jones/WSJ reporting that not only will Trump not impose the new tariffs set to come into effect on Dec 15, but will cut existing tariffs by up to 50%. U.S. Negotiators Offer to Cut Existing Tariff Rates by up to…

President Trump has advised Greta Thunberg to "Chill," and suggests that the fiery activist "work on her Anger Management problem." Thunberg, a 16-year-old Swedish environmentalist who dropped out of school to rail against everyone except China (the world's largest polluter by gross volume), was just named TIME magazine's most influential person for 2019. So ridiculous.…

Submitted by Nicholas Colas of Datatrek Research Just like the holidays, Wall Street prediction season comes earlier every year. Today we review a landmark academic paper on how to make smart forecasts. The key lesson: focus on the big, statistically validated picture, not cherry picked data anyone puts in front of you. For example, 90…

As Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi wrote on Tuesday following the release of the long-awaited DOJ Inspector General's report on FISA abuse, the FBI went to "extraordinary, almost comical lengths to seek surveillance authority of figures like Trump aide Carter Page." And as the credibility of the so-called 'Steele Dossier' was rapidly unraveling amid Republican claims…

In the aftermath of Zoltan Pozsar's stunning "doomsday" report about an upcoming crisis in the repo market, which we discussed extensively yesterday, and which predicted that the Fed may "lose control of overnight rates" leading to a vicious dislocation in repos coupled with a paralysis in the FX swap market, many traders who (pretend to)…

Via SchiffGold.com, The world’s rich are hoarding gold – this according to data buried in a recent Goldman Sachs note to clients. In the note published over the weekend, Goldman recommended diversifying long-term bond holdings with gold, citing “fear-driven demand” for the yellow metal. Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted their bullish bets on gold…