“If we can stop him, we shall prevent the collapse of Western Civilization. No pressure.”
– Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
In the first issue of the Civil War Weather Report, I put together ten steps to a new civil war. I did not expect that on the one year anniversary of that first report we’d move from step 6 nearly to step 9. Step 9. is, of course, two minutes to midnight.
Things are going well.
People begin to create groups.
People begin to look for preferential treatment.
Opposing ideology to the prevailing civic ideology is introduced and spread.
Those who have an opposing ideology are considered evil.
People actively avoid being near those of opposing ideology. Might move from communities or states just because of ideology.
Common violence. Organized violence is occurring monthly.
Opposing sides develop governing/war structures. Just in case.
Common violence that is generally deemed by governmental authorities as justified based on ideology.
We are very, very close. I debated internally more than a bit whether we were at an 8. or a 9. this month. I finally decided to stay at an 8., despite multiple jurisdictions doing everything but arming the rioting faction of the protest movement with automatic firearms and bullhorns that make them all sound like Gilbert Gottfried. It is clear we are at least an 8., and you will see in the graphs section that our Wilder Violence Index has reached new highs.
Welcome to Issue 12 of the Civil War II Weather Report. These posts are different than the other posts at Wilder Wealthy and Wise and consist of smaller segments covering multiple topics around the single focus of Civil War 2.0, on the first or second Monday of every month. I’ve created a page (Link) for links to all of the past issues.
You Knew Where This Was Going
The most popular posts on this site have been about the political state of the country. The Civil War Weather Reports aren’t my usual form of post, but have proven to be very popular. I’m sure it’s not just for graphs featuring bikinis. Well, at least not only because of the bikinis.
I think the reason these posts are popular is simple: many people could sense the fragile peak that it seems all of Western Civilization is perched on. Whether it is a conscious review of the surrounding culture or just a feeling in the pit of the stomach when confronted with an outrageous news article, something’s just not right. Society has been changing by increments over the years, but those changes are coming faster and faster and faster.
Claire Wolfe, the groundbreaking and iconic Freedom blogger said it very well at her place last week (LINK):
Each day I think I’ve processed the latest craziness enough to blog something coherent. Useful even. But then new waves of craziness wash over the world. I don’t know what to say. I can’t write good sense against the onslaught of the crazy. I don’t know how civilization is holding together under tsunamis of crazy.
But then, of course civilization isn’t holding together — and I’m not just talking about the one-two punch of totalitarian don’tleaveyourhouseism followed without pause by riotandlootallyouwantism.
Chains of rapid-fire events and chaos like this are not generally the friend of those that love freedom. The Russian Revolution promised:
Peace, through ending World War I,
Food, because Communists are well known to produce excess food,
Land, whereby peasants would get parts of land owned by the wealthy,
Maximum working hours,
Running factories by elected worker representatives and
Lots of other promises.
In the end, up to 12,000,000 people (mainly civilians) died in the civil war that followed, and the promises that were made were largely ignored. The Bolsheviks said and promised anything to get a force of disaffected behind them. Not sure if this sounds familiar to AOC fans?
Hey girl, are you the French Revolution? Because I keep imagining you sans-culottes.
I get a sense that the Left today is up to the same trick. They’ve “created” media events and have managed them to get power – political power and power in the street. Some of the Leftists may even be stupid enough to believe that there are magic economic levers that they can move to keep the promises they’re making. In reality, they really don’t care: it’s all about the power.
Lenin’s reintroduction into Russia and subsequent funding from foreign sources bring George Soros to mind. Soros continually funds groups in the United States that are directly opposed to actual freedom. The protesters and their associated rioters have a structure that has been funded and provisioned with everything from water and medical supplies to pre-staged bricks and gasoline. Not saying that George is funding those directly, but . . .
More on that, below.
Violence and Censorship Update
No politician has ever captured the attention of the Left like Donald Trump. They hated Reagan, and George W. Bush was famous for “stealing” an election. But something about Trump drives them nearly crazy enough to try to get a job. The media’s portrayal of Trump as the anti-ChristObama, perhaps?
The violence, of course, is plain for anyone reading any news to see. It’s not in just the United States: these protests have been coordinated across nearly every Western nation. If the protests had been confined to Minnesota, I could buy the idea that they were organic. And to the extent that they are peaceful gatherings to seek political redress? I celebrate them.
It’s not looting, it’s just an involuntary clearance sale.
But to flash across the world with violence and destruction? That takes amplification and organization and is clearly the seed of revolution against the West.
The amplification of the signal comes from both mainstream and social media. Whereas the original death that started the protests was (rightly) exposed, the subsequent deaths of protesters, rioters, and innocent civilians hasn’t been mentioned much at all. How many dead?
I’m not sure. This should be a fairly easy number to get to, but I’ve seen numbers between 12 and 18. Absent media tracking, I’m not sure how you’ll count them up. If we wait long enough, I’m sure they’ll all be counted and attributed to COVID-19. To add to the butcher’s bill, thousands have been injured.
Regardless, I have seen, at minimum tens of millions of dollars in damage. I would expect the number to increase to hundreds of millions, at least. A fire is, as I write this, blazing in downtown Phoenix. Odds that it’s related to the rest of the violence? Nearly 100%.
Censorship is on the rise, as well. I already spouted off on that last week (Free Speech: Endangered Species – WRSA is Down) in response to Western Rifle Shooters Association being shut down (You Can Find Him Here). I expect to see that it will be on the increase during the next six months – the election is too important to the Left to leave it in Biden’s hands – chances are good he might wander off to try to buy a rotary phone at Montgomery Wards™.
Updated Civil War II Index
The Civil War II graphs are an attempt to measure four factors that might make Civil War II more likely, in real time. They are broken up into Violence, Political Instability, Economic Outlook, and Illegal Alien Crossings. As each of these is difficult to measure, I’ve created for three of the four metrics some leading indicators that lead to the index. On illegal aliens, I’m just using government figures.
May was again a difficult month. I had to re-scale the graph on violence as this month nearly pegged every meter. I will assure my faithful readers that I spent extra time this month finding just the right bikini-clad girl, since I want to at least reach the journalistic integrity standards of the Washington Post®.
Up is more violent. Violence had been down because everyone was stuck in the basement. I predicted that May would be mellow, and then we’d see the uptick in June. I was almost right.
Up is more unstable. Instability is up only slightly, which might seem weird, but the system is still stable overall. I may look into another graph next month to measure political change, because it sure feels like we crossed over into a regime where big political changes are more likely – and this graph was meant more about the overthrow of a sitting president, hence the peak in December.
Down indicates worse economic conditions, and it’s down yet again. I did change the basis somewhat for this month. Previously it had been a spot measurement, but this shows more a relative measurement from a baseline. But did you come for that, or for the bikini?
Down is good, in theory. This is a statistic showing border apprehensions by the Border Patrol. Down, probably related to WuFlu. Until Mexico’s economy collapses. Then what? Regardless, this is at a nearly five-year low.
Balkans or Caesar Might Be The Best Case Scenario
I’ve written both about the idea of the United States breaking up into regional governments that run either as autonomous countries, or close enough to autonomous that it doesn’t matter. This irritates Right-thinking folks “behind the lines” in Leftist states. They clearly don’t like the idea of being left behind in a People’s Republic of California or the New York Soviet Oblast. I can understand that, especially since the divide is so much more rural/urban than on a state by state basis and the Right just wants to be left alone.
Being Balkanized remains a possibility, and probably guarantees border wars for decades unless we put up a big, beautiful wall around California.
I have, over time, began to think it’s much more likely that the nonsense will continue until a strongman arrives and proclaims that he’s “President for the Duration of the Continuing National Emergency.” I certainly don’t think Trump is this person. Biden is even less this person. But some Cuomo or other acting as Wall Street’s puppet? I could see that being more likely. If we had a military hero of some stature, that would also make sense.
Maybe Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos?
I guess Jeff divorced his wife because she was past her Prime™?
Is having a Caesar that bad? Absolutely. But a strongman will try to have to have some sort of legitimacy and will at least (in theory) have some desire to keep a relatively strong country together to turn over to his children. The old forms of government will be nodded to. The Senate may not have power, but there will be Senators pretending to have power.
Not good, especially since that pesky Constitution will be entirely ignored, rather than mostly ignored like it is today. But Caesar’s United States probably more peaceful than a Balkanized America.
But there is one possibility that scares me more than either of those: Soviet America.
The riots that started nine days ago (yes, it’s only been that long) appear to be the Left making the first push into creating violence to go along with our economic issues and the lingering Coronavirus.
I brought up the Russian Revolution earlier, because that more than anything is what this latest round of violence feels like: violence, in part funded and provoked by a foreign enemy with the aim of destabilizing America and making people welcome those who promise what they never can really provide.