Get ready for two decades of a US-China trade war and the peak of globalization, Jack Ma, the co-founder and former chairman of Alibaba Group, told Bloomberg TV Thursday evening in an exclusive interview.
Ma warned that Sino-American relations could experience 20-years of “turbulence” if trade disputes aren’t solved in a timely fashion.
“We have to be very, very careful,” Ma said. “We have to solve problems, and we should not create more problems.”
Ma said China and the US must work together in supporting globalization, by sharing technology and prosperity across the world.
Alibaba Co-Founder Jack Ma speaks to @YIbukun about his mission to help entrepreneurs in Africa, the US-China trade war, and whether he still plans to list Ant Financial. Watch the full exclusive with on @BloombergTV @business pic.twitter.com/ea7MdyXNOa
— Samantha Jenkins (@samanthajenkins) November 15, 2019
Failure to resolve trade disputes in the next several years could confirm “peak” globalization. This means policy-driven de-globalization will flourish across countries and lead to lower trade volumes, shrinking global GDP, more uncertainty, and a possible trade recession as complex supply chains are reworked.
An instant rollback in the trade war between both China and the US wouldn’t immediately lead a resurgence in globalization but rather a plateau — as the damage has already been done.
The de-globalization scenario is becoming more plausible by the day, despite meaningless trade headlines from the Trump administration of an imminent trade deal to pump the stock market. The trend is in place, and the global economy has likely entered or about to enter a worldwide trade recession.
Ma could be right; several decades of a trade war are likely. Investors are not positioned for the volatility ahead.