Update (21115ET): It appears it’s all over bar the crying for Bernie Sanders as Joe Biden sweeps the early states on Super Tuesday 2. The former vice-president has dominated the socialist in Mississippi, Missouri, and now Michigan:
Michigan (125 delegates): Winner: Biden.
Missouri (68 delegates): Winner: Biden.
Mississippi (36 delegates): Winner: Biden.
Notably, despite all the snowflakery, turnout among younger voters, according to exit polls, was down in Missouri and Mississippi from four years ago.
As 538’s Nate Silver noted, the polling swing toward Biden is probably the fastest in the history of the primaries.
We have him gaining 36.2 points in national polls over the past 14 days. The previous record is John Kerry, who gained 32.3 points from 1/21 to 2/24/04 in our retrospective national average.
On the question of electability, CNN exit polls showed that 80% of voters thought Biden was the candidate that could beat Donald Trump, versus 17% for Sanders.
The math is now clear. Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee for President and @prioritiesUSA is going to do everything we can to help him defeat Donald Trump in November. I hope others will join us in the fight.
— Guy Cecil (@guycecil) March 11, 2020
The Trump campaign has issued a statement on tonight, via Brad Parscale:
“It has never mattered who the Democrat nominee turns out to be, and now that there are only two options left, it is clear that they are two sides of the same coin. The Democrat candidate for president will be running on a big government socialist agenda regardless of the name on the ballot. It is also clear that the Democrat establishment has rallied around the confused Joe Biden in an effort to deny the nomination to Bernie Sanders. Either way, President Trump is on an unstoppable drive toward re-election.”
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Six states are holding primaries today – with Michigan awarding the most delegates, followed by Washington State, Missouri, Mississippi, Idaho and North Dakota. Results are expected to begin rolling in around 8 p.m. Eastern time.
Michigan allocates 125 pledged delegates to the convention, making up 3.5% of the total allocated throughout the process. Polls close in most of the state of 8 p.m. ET. In four of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula counties located in the Central Time Zone, polls just closed at 8 p.m. Central and 9 p.m. ET.
Mississippi allocates 36 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.
North Dakota allocates 14 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls in the state’s Firehouse Caucuses closed at 7 p.m. Central time and 8 p.m. ET.
Missouri allocates 68 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls closed at 7 p.m. local time and 8 p.m. ET.
Idaho allocates 20 pledged delegates to the convention. Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, 10 p.m. ET.
Washington, which allocates 89 pledged delegates to the convention, conducts its elections entirely by mail. Voters must either mail in a ballot postmarked by election day or drop off their ballot in person in their county elections office no later than 8 p.m. local time on the day of the election.
Former VP Joe Biden has 664 delegates under his belt going into tonight’s voting, while Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) trails with 573. After Sanders’ lost an early delegate lead on Super Tuesday, the Vermont democratic socialist needs a big win in Michigan to put him back in the game with its 125 delegates. If that doesn’t happen, it’s curtains for Bernie.
As the NY Post notes, Sanders won Michigan in 2016 in a stunning victory over Hillary Clinton by 18,000 votes. That said, “there are doubts Sanders can recreate that victory, with speculation rampant that Michigan this time could sound the death knell for his campaign.“
The reality of the situation is not lost on PredictIt betters, who have Biden sharply in the lead as the likely Democratic nominee.
Stay tuned for results as they roll in…